ABSTRACT
This work investigates the ongoing crisis between Russia and Ukraine and its potential impacts on the global economy. The crisis began in 2014 when Russia annexed Crimea and has since escalated into a violent conflict in eastern Ukraine. This work analyzes the economic factors at play, including the impact on oil prices, trade relations, and the stability of the European Union. The project also examines the political and geopolitical implications of the crisis and its potential to disrupt international security and stability and the impact on key economic indicators such as GDP, inflation rates, exchange rates, and trade relations. Additionally, the research draws on a range of sources, including academic literature, news articles, to provide a comprehensive analysis of the crisis and its potential impacts on the global economy.
The theoretical framework, methodology, key findings and a comprehensive recommendation of this project are relevant to policymakers, economists, and scholars concerned with the stability and sustainability of the global economic system.
TABLE OF CONTENTS
Title i
Approval ii
Certification iii
Dedication iv
Acknowledgements v
Abstract vi
Table of Contents vii
CHAPTER ONE: INTRODUCTION
- Background to the Study
- Statement of the Problem
- Research Questions
- Objectives of the Study
- Significance of the Study
- Scope and Limitations of the Study
- Literature Review
- Theoretical Framework
- Research Hypotheses
- Research Method
CHAPTER TWO: HISTORICAL OVERVIEW OF THE RUSSIA-UKRAINE CONFLICT
2.1 From 1945-1990
2.2 From 1990 to the war of 2022
CHAPTER THREE: FACTORS THAT LED TO THE CONFLICT BETWEEN RUSSIA AND UKRAINE
3.1 International Alliances (The West vs. Russia)
3.2 The Annexation of Crimea
3.3 Russian Maintenance of Post-Soviet States
IMPACTS OF THE RUSSIA-UKRAINE CONFLICT ON THE GLOBAL ECONOMY
3.4 Rising Cost of Living and Global Inflation
3.5 Rise in Oil and Gas Prices
3.6 Refugee Crisis
CHAPTER FOUR: STRATEGIES TO CURTAIL THE RUSSIA-UKRAINE CONFLICT
4.1 Conflict Resolution
4.2 Curb Military Operations along the NATO/Russian Border
4.3 Moratorium on NATO Expansion
CHAPTER FIVE: SUMMARY, CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS
5.1 Summary
5.2 Conclusions
5.3 Recommendations
References
`CHAPTER ONE
INTRODUCTION
1.1 Background to the Study
The world witnessed a significant disruption in economic activities due to the lockdown restrictions during the COVID pandemic (Ozili and Arun, 2020). Global recovery from the COVID pandemic began in early 2022. Many countries announced plans to remove COVID-era restrictions due to a significant decline in the number of reported COVID infection and death cases in many countries. At the start of 2022, there was great optimism about post-COVID economic growth as many countries intensified efforts to control rising inflation and to spur growth. This led to a positive outlook for global growth which was predicted to increase to 4.4 or 4.9 percent in 2022 according to the IMF World Economic Outlook (WEO).
During the same period, Russia invaded Ukraine in February of 2022. The invasion led to geopolitical tensions between the West and Russia, and it diminished global growth forecast due to uncertainty about the effect of the conflict on global supply chain. This study explores the global economic consequence of the Russian-Ukraine war in the month of invasion. It is important to understand and identify how the invasion affected global business activities and prices and the implication for the future. I begin by providing some answers to the question: why do countries fight and go to war in the modern era? The simple answer is that countries go to war, or engage in conflict, to protect national resources, to maintain one’s regional influence, to gain more or equal control over shared resources, or to preserve colonial rights, heritage or values (Averre, 2016; Malyarenko and Wolff, 2018). In the case of Russia, the reason for going into conflict with Ukraine is to protect its border and to maintain its regional influence in the east of Europe (Mankoff, 2014). But how did the Ukraine-Russian crisis start? Since the 2000s, Ukraine has been wavering between the West and Russia. This means that Ukraine has not been able to fully join a Western alliance and has not accepted to be fully under Russian influence. In 2008, Ukraine planned to formally join the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), a move that was supported by the United States but was opposed by France and Germany after Russia announced its opposition to Ukraine’s membership of NATO. Subsequently, the plan to join Ukraine was postponed to a later time. In February 2010, a new Ukrainian president was elected who promised that Ukraine will be a ‘neutral state’ which will cooperate with Russia and Western alliances like the EU and NATO. Soon after Crimea was annexed by Russia in 2014. The annexation led to violence in Donbas and led to intense fighting and violence along the border regions that separated Russian and Ukraine to the east of Europe. Since then, Ukrainian public sentiment has been towards the West with calls for Ukraine to join NATO and the EU to reduce its dependence on Russia. But Russia’s opposition of Ukraine’s membership of NATO since 2010 has caused escalation between the two countries.
While the full economic consequences of Russian invasion of Ukraine may not be fully known until the crisis ends, early economic data shows some significant movement in global economic data as a result of Russian invasion of Ukraine.
1.2 Statement of the Problem
The pro-Russian reason for invading Ukraine is that Ukraine is being controlled by Western powers, and that Ukraine was using its military to oppress citizens in separatist regions who are loyal to Russian government and is committing genocide against its own people (Toney, 2022). The Russian government also claimed that Ukraine’s ambition to join a military alliance with NATO poses an existential threat to Russia’s national security, and such ambition will expand NATO eastward and bring NATO closer to Russia’s border thereby posing an existential threat to Russia (Toney, 2022). It will allow the West to infiltrate Russia and undermine Russia’s national security. Russia claims that these two issues gave it a motivation to act militarily against Ukraine. Russia also claimed that it considered many options to resolve the issue including negotiation or invasion (Cliff, 2022). But with Ukraine refusing to negotiate before the invasion, the Russian government said that it chose the least dangerous option which was to invade Ukraine in order to remove the pro-West government in Kyiv, install a new government and sign a peace deal with the newly installed government. The peace deal will include a ban from joining the NATO and the European Union (Akhmed, 2022).
According to Kimberly (2022), The pro-West or Western account of the invasion, as reported by multiple Western media, is that Russia feels threatened that Ukraine wants to be a democratic nation, free from Russian influence, and seek collaboration with the West in politics, security and trade which includes the possibility of joining NATO and the European Union. The pro-West media reports that Russia opposes Ukraine’s decision to adopt Western democracy and alliance because Ukraine’s western alliance with the European Union and NATO could threaten the national security of Russia. Western media believes that this is the reason why Russia launched a ‘special military operation’ in Ukraine so that it can remove the Ukrainian president and the incumbent government in Kyiv and install a new pro-Russian government in Ukraine (Kimberly, 2022).
1.3 Research Questions
This study on Russia-Ukraine crisis and its implications on the global economy are guided by the following research questions;
- What factors led to the conflict between Russia and Ukraine?
- Has the Russia-Ukraine conflict impacted on the global economy?
- How have different countries responded to the Russia-Ukraine crisis?
1.4 Objectives of the Study
The main objective of this study is to critically examine the implications of Russia-Ukraine conflict on the global economy.
Specifically, the study seeks:
- To investigate the factors that led to the conflict between Russia and Ukraine.
- To assess the impact of the Russia-Ukraine conflict on the global economy.
- To examine the conflict strategies that should be adopted to curtail the Russia-Ukraine conflict.
1.5 Significance of the Study
Theoretically; this study is expected to be intellectually rewarding and will provide an academic reference point for future researchers who might encounter similar problems and then go on to proffer solutions. In other words, it will make a major intellectual contribution to the academic inquiries on the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. In addition, it will contribute to the existing literature on the implications of the conflict on global economy.
Practically; the study will be of utmost significance to the policy makers, who have been wallowing in the dark over the causes of the Russia-Ukraine conflict. It will create awareness on the implications of the conflict on global economy. Thus, the study promises to provide a sustainable alternative perspective and strategy for policy makers in tacking the issue of conflict.
1.6 Scope and Limitations of the Study
This study is designed to examine the implications of Russia-Ukraine conflict on the global security. The focus of the research dwells from the invasion of Russia into Ukraine in 2022. However, examples and references are drawn from other period of the conflict.
As in any social science and scientific research, this study has some limitations. This research is limited by a number of factors and they include the following: The study was limited by dearth of information; due to the fact that, the conflict is still ongoing. Another limitation was time frame: a combination of school programme and research of this magnitude needs ample time which was lacking.
