# STATISTICAL ANALYSIS ON MOTOR ACCIDENT IN OYO STATE {A CASE STUDY OF FEDERAL ROAD SAFETY COMMISSION, ELEYELE IBADAN OYO STATE. FROM 2002-2011}

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ABSTRACT

The statistical analysis of motor accidents fatal and minor accidents with particular reference to Federal Road Safety Commission Eleyele Ibadan Oyo state for the period of (2002-2011) is reviewed in this project.

The statistical tools used in this research work are as follows: Regression analysis, Correlation analysis, Student –t distribution or comparative test and graph.

From the result, the regression model of fatal accident and time is y = -112.7 + 157.2{x}, The test for linearity of regression equation shows that there is linear relationship between fatal accidents and time. The regression model of minor accident and time is y = 31.2 + 20.5{x}. The test for linearity of regression equation shows there is no linear relationship between minor accidents and time. The correlation analysis of minor accident and time r = 0.58 shows that there is a strong positive relationship between the minor accident and time. From the comparative test, it can be said that there is a significant different between the mean of fatal and minor accident.

In conclusion, from this study, it is observed that the incidence of, road accident in Oyo state is on the increase. Therefore, there is need to view road traffic accident as an issue that needs urgent attention aimed at reducing the health, social and economic impacts. ‘Safe road’ in Nigeria is more of changing our driving behavior than just blaming the government alone and advocating for good road infrastructure.

Title                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            page

Title page                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 i

Certification                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             ii

Dedication                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                iii

Acknowledgment                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             iv-v

Abstract                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   vi

CHAPTER ONE

1.0 Introduction                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   1

1.1 Causes of motor accident                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 3

1.2 Background to the study                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  8

1.3 Historical perspective of frsc                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              8

1.4 Significance of the study                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  10

1.5 Scope and coverage of the study                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      11

1.6 Definition of the terms used                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             11

1.7 Aim and objective                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         12

CHAPTER TWO

2.0 Literature review                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           13

2.1 Causes of road accident                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    12

CHAPTER THREE

3.0 Research methodology                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     19

3.1 Types and sources of data                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                19

3.1.1. Sources of primary data                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                19

3.1.2 Uses of primary data                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      20

3.1.3 Sources of secondary data                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             20

3.1.4 Uses of secondary data                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  21

3.2. Method of data collection                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               21

3.3 Problem of data collection                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                22

3.4 Review of analysis tools                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   24-32

CHAPTER FOUR

4.0 Presentation and analysis of data                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     33

4.1 Presentation of data                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          33

4.2 Regression analysis between fatal accidents and time                                                                                                                                                         33

4.2.1 Test for linearity between fatal accidents and time                                                                                                                                                           35

4.3 Regression analysis between minor accident and time                                                                                                                                                         37

4.3.1 Test for linearity between fatal accidents and time                                                                                                                                                           39

4.4 Correlation between fatal accident and time                                                                                                                                                                        41

4.5 Correlation analysis between minor accident and time                                                                                                                                                        44

4.6 Data analysis using spss                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    48-51

4.7 Forecast for fatal accident                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                52

4.8 Forecast for minor accident                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              53

CHAPTER FIVE

5.0 Summary of findings, Recommendation and Conclusion                                                                        54-55

5.1 Recommendation                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          55

5.2. Conclusion                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   56

Bibliography                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            57

CHAPTER ONE

• INTRODUCTION

Transportation is a means of moving goods and people from one place to another. In marketing, it involves the movement of goods from one place of production to the place of consumption. Goods can be moved from the factories to the wholesalers and to the retailers where the consumers come to buy them. It is also possible to move goods from the retailers shops to the consumers or from the wholesalers to the consumers and in some cases from the producers direct to the consumers.

The Importance of Transportation

1. Transportation links the different fixed facilities and markets and thus serves to neutralize the spatial separation of the facilities.
2. As a marketing function, therefore, it increases the economic value of the products by creating time and place utilities and promoting possession utility.
3. For the producer, the transportation aids in moving raw materials and other components from the suppliers to the plants and warehouses and from plants and warehouses to other plants. It also involves the movement of finished goods from the warehouses or distribution centers and to customers.
4. Consumers also benefit from transportation because some retailers deliver goods directly to them.

Nigeria in particular has various types of transportation system and these could be grouped as follows:-

1. Rail transportation by train
2. Air transportation by aero plane
3. Sea transportation by ship, canoe e.t.c
4. Road transportation by car, lorries, buses and trucks
5. Human porterage by tracking to far and near distance.

This research will be emphasized on road transportation under which motor accidents falls (Fatal and Minor accident). Motor accident is one of the rapid accidents in transportation, which mostly results in loss of life.

Though the statistics records shown that Nigeria is one of the countries in the world with the highest rate of motor accidents. The federal government has been making frantic effort to minimize its importance and if possible eradicate its occurrence by introducing Federal road safety corps, assess and reduce the frequency of motor accident on our roads most especially in Oyo state which is the case study of this research work.

Despite the effort of Federal road safety corps to ensure safety on our roads to obey rules and regulations on how to make use of traffic signs and symbols, making sure that vehicle are tested to ensure road worthy before playing the roads and highways, from empirical research we shall find out that accident still occur on our road and if this situation is not properly arrested in time. Nigeria will continue to lose economically, politically and otherwise.

MOTOR ACCIDENT

Motor accident is a major cause of mortality and disability in Nigeria, whichexplains the reason for the establishment of Federal Road Safety Commission in 1988 to address the carnage and maiming on the highways and roads. This paper employed Time Series statistical tools to build model, and examine seasonality pattern of the number of cases of motor accident recorded at the Federal Road Safety Commission, Eleyele Ibadan Sector command using secondary data collected from the record section of the command from 2002 to 2011.

It was finally concluded that the Federal Road Safety Commission has been performing to expectation in the manner it discharges her duties by adjuring from the results of the analyses.The motor vehicle is definitely an important factor in the socio-economic development of a nation, a factor which cannot be easily dispensed with. In Oyo state, it provides the most common means of transportation for the people and goods. Just as the stoppage of the circulatory system signifies the end of life, so does the stoppage of all forms of transport spell the collapse of modern economy. From the view of community, the importance of accident statistics arise from the fact that each accident result in economy waste, the accident result in damage, personal injury or death it leads to loss of human and materials resource. Hurry excessively forgetting one basic fact of transportation that movement takes time.

The general standard law of traffic discipline on the part of Oyo state monitoring population is worsened by the low standard of traffic control at junctions. Furthermore, traffic safety measures are poor, especially with respect to the safety of cyclist and pedestrians particularly school children.

1.1       CAUSES OF MOTOR ACCIDENT.

These are factors which spark off the occurrence of motor accident and these includes the following:

1. Vehicle operator or driver factors
2. Vehicle factors
4. Environmental factors.

1.1.1    Driver’s factors

Driver factors in road traffic accidents are all factors related to drivers and other road users. However, unlike the findings of TRACE, in Nigeria, studies and road traffic accident records have clearly shown that the attitude of the Nigerian driver to driving code and etiquette is the single most important contributing factor as driver factors solely contributes to about 57 per cent of road traffic accidents and 93 per cent either alone or in combination with other factors.

1.1.2    Drink–driving and use of drugs

Drinking and driving increases both the risk of a traffic accident and the likelihood that death or serious injury will result. The risk of being involved in a traffic accident increases significantly above a blood alcohol concentration (BAC) of 0.04 g/dl. Doctors often advise patients to abstain from driving vehicles or operation of machineries while under certain drugs as these drugs are known to cause side effects of sleepiness and fatigue thus leading to possible occurrence of accident

1.1.3    Distracted driving

There are many types of distractions that can lead to impaired driving, but recently there has been a marked increase around the world in the use of mobile phones by drivers that is becoming a growing concern for road safety. The distraction caused by mobile phones can impair driving performance in a number of ways, e.g. longer reaction times (notably braking reaction time, but also reaction to traffic signals), impaired ability to keep in the correct lane, and shorter following distances. Text messaging also results in considerably reduced driving performance, with young drivers at particular risk of the effects of distraction resulting from this use. Drivers using a mobile phone are approximately four times more likely to be involved in a traffic accident than when a driver does not use a phone. Hands-free phones are not much safer than hand-held phone sets as they too have been recorded to result in traffic accidents when shocking news is received while driving.

1.1.4    Inexperience and unqualified drivers

Majority of Nigerian drivers do not possess the right authorization from government authorized agencies like the Federal Road Safety Commission, FRSC and are unqualified before driving cars on road pavements. This is the major reason most Nigerian drivers are ignorant of highway codes or traffic orders. They put their lives and those of other road users at the risk of traffic accidents. As a result of their inexperience, since they were never given any tutorial or taught how to use their vehicles on highways by government accredited driving schools, their decision making ability and reaction speed to traffic is bad.

Non use of safety device and negligence of duty by government established agencies Seat belts are safety device provided to safeguard a driver in the course of an accident. The use of vehicle seatbelts also helps to ensure that the driver is in an upright and comfortable position thus enabling him/her to properoperate the vehicle. However, this provided safety device has been grossly abused thus increasing the risk offatality among front-seat and of rear-seat passengers. Also majority of motorcyclists or their passenger do notwear helmets while plying the road thus exposing themselves and indeed other road users to road traffic accident.Officials of government agencies such as the FRSC and Vehicle Inspection Office, VIO do not help matters asthey have been seen to take their duties for granted by just being mere spectators each time they come across adriver or passenger not wearing seat belt, a driver using mobile phone while driving or a motorcyclist andpassenger not wearing helmets.

1.1.5    Vehicle factors

The vehicle itself is a key factor when analyzing the remote causes of a traffic accident and it is incorporated with gadgets like, the horn, side mirrors, wipers, braking system, trafficators, headlights and break-lights (to mention just a few) so as to avoid road accident. Malfunction of any vehicle parts such as tyres, engines, braking systems, light systems can cause road traffic accidents. The reliability of the vehicle is itself a function of the condition of vehicle at every given time. Vehicle components and vehicle maintenance are the two main conditions which affect vehicle factors as it relates to causes of road traffic accidents.

1.1.6    Vehicle Components

The assembled components of a vehicle working effectively uniformly or abnormally as a unit will determine the occurrence of a traffic accident.

1.1.7    Vehicle Design

The specific maximum load designed for a vehicle in its entire ramification goes a long way towards determining its stability on the road surface. When vehicles are subjected to stress over and above the provisions of the design specifications as is the case of a lot of vehicles plying the Nigerian roads, deterioration for the condition of the vehicle in accelerated wear and tear sets in. Design defects affect the subsequent condition of the vehicle once it is put on the road and operated either normally or otherwise which may result to possible road traffic

accidents.

1.1.8    Vehicle Brake System

Brakes are generally applied to rotating axles or wheels. Vehicles use a combination of braking mechanisms which works jointly with the accelerator as the main synchronizer of the speeds of vehicles. Any malfunctioning of the brake sub-system should be taken very seriously as a potential source of unavoidable accident.

1.1.9    Vehicle Body and Tyres

The firmness of the structure of a vehicle though less prominent attributes to some measure in causing roadtraffic accidents.One of the dominant factor in determining the stability and safety of vehicles on the road is the tyres. Tyresdesigned and specified for cold regions are not those specified for temperate regions like Nigeria. However, thisis not the case of most tyres used in Nigeria as vehicle owners do not take the specification of tyresintoconsideration when buying and fixing tyres onto their vehicles and this has been known to cause tyrerapturesthus leading to motor accidents. Some other tyre related causes of road accidents could be due to one or acombination of over inflated tyres, under inflated tyres, thread of tyres are thoroughly worn out.

1.1.10  Vehicle Lights

The failure of vehicle light is a major factor in road traffic accident. Failure of vehicle lights has a tendency to misinform and mislead other road users thereby providing a good opportunity for an accident to occur. Vehicle lights are very useful at all times during the daylight, in darkness and in poor/bad weather. For example, a failed trafficator light of a vehicle ahead will not normally provide the usual warning to other vehicles behind that it is about to undertake a turning manoeuvre and if for instance the driver of the vehicle behind has not allowed for a sufficient stopping sight distance or the vehicle has a faulty brake sub-system, this could result in

an accident occurring.

1.1.11  Vehicle Engine

The power house and heart of the vehicle is the engine sub-system which is responsible for bringing other parts of the vehicle into motion and one whose sudden failure on a highway is more likely to cause an accident if the volume of traffic is sufficiently high at that point in time. Even when the traffic is reasonably low, mismanagement of the failure by an experienced driver could cause road traffic accident.

1.1.12  Vehicle Maintenance

Acquiring a well designed vehicle and putting it onto road use is not enough to prevent the vehicle from causing road traffic accident. Actually not performing routine maintenance and checks on the vehicle can lead to deterioration of the vehicle sub-systems and thus expose the vehicle to causing road traffic accident as a well maintained vehicle is less likely to be involved in accidents. For example, if the brakes and tires are good and the suspension well-adjusted, the vehicle is more controllable in an emergency and thus, better equipped to avoid accidents.

Nigerian highways are arguably one of the worst and most dangerous in the world as they are often poorly designed, necessary important road facilities like drains are not adequately provided for and to top it up, they are rarely rehabilitated and are in dilapidated states. The deplorable states of the Nigerian highways create a scenario that makes vehicles and other road users susceptible to road traffic accidents. This further confirms that motor accidents are not just caused by human error or drivers’ negligence.

1.1.14  Environmental factors

Environmental related conditions such as fog, sunrays, mist and rain in no small measure contributes greatly to the rate of road traffic accident in Nigeria today. Having stated earlier that most vehicles on Nigerian roads are poorly maintained, a poorly maintained vehicle for example on a rainy day is most likely to cause road traffic accident if the wipers are faulty and not functioning as the driver will be unable to see ahead.

1.2 BACKGROUND OF THE CASESTUDY

Before the establishment of the FRSC the traffic situation in Nigeria could best be described as chaotic, unpredictable and indeed dangerous. It was characterized by unperfected wave of road traffic accident with attendant colossal human and material losses within this era, public awareness and human in road safety was minimal. There was no coordinated and emphasized licensing of drivers and vehicles as well as driving cultures. Deliberate policies and concerted effort at enforcing regulations was lacking quantitatively road traffic accident fatality index as at 1987 was 302 at 16 death per 1000 vehicle as a specific response to the road safety question the federal military government established the Federal road commission in1988 vide decree 45 of 1988 as amended by decree 55 of 1992 (frsc act cap 141, laws of the federation of Nigeria 1990). The critical mandate of the commission was accident prevention and loss reduction on all public road access the country, this paper is an attempt to x-ray the activities of the commission vis-a vis its cooperate mandate with 18 years of the existence.

1.3HISTORICAL PERSPECTIVE OF FRSC